Texans

On the opposite end of the spectrum, the 2020 Texans were about as hapless as it gets. By any measure you can find, they were a disaster on defense. Anthony Weaver's unit ranked 27th in points allowed, 30th in points allowed per drive and 30th in DVOA. A composite of the quarterbacks who played the 4-12 Texans last season would have posted a better passer rating than Patrick Mahomes in 2020, and that came in a year in which Houston faced starters such as Brandon AllenJake Luton and Mitchell Trubisky. Opposing quarterbacks completed 69.7% of their passes against the Texans while averaging 8.0 yards per attempt and throwing 30 touchdowns against just three picks.

That last number is where I want to start. Three interceptions for an entire defense isn't an NFL record, but it's close; you might remember that the 2018 49ers intercepted just two passes all season, something highlighted in this space before the 2019 campaign. Add in six fumble recoveries and the Texans finished with just nine takeaways, the second-lowest mark in NFL history. Again, they're just behind the 2018 49ers, who had seven. The 2019 Niners picked off Jameis Winston three times in Week 1, finished the year with 12 interceptions and ended up making it all the way to the Super Bowl.

I don't want to spoil the 2021 season for you, but let me throw this one out there: The Texans aren't making it to the Super Bowl. It's about as unlikely as their chances of finishing with three interceptions again. Even bad teams get too many chances at possible interceptions to finish with just three picks in back-to-back seasons. Houston has quarterbacks such as Sam DarnoldCam Newton and Zach Wilson on the schedule, and that's before even considering the likelihood of facing a backup quarterback or two by the end of the year.

It's fair to note that the Texans lost their most notable defender this offseason when they cut J.J. Watt, but general manager Nick Caserio unquestionably added much-needed depth to the roster this offseason. Houston signed more than a dozen veterans to play on the defensive side of the ball, including recent starters Jordan JenkinsTerrance Mitchell and Christian Kirksey. It traded for Shaq Lawson and already had a pair of useful contributors in Justin Reid and Whitney Mercilus. The Texans are not going to be a great defense by any means, but at the very least, Lovie Smith's unit is going to force more takeaways this season.